A Scintillating Experience!!! :)

Hmmm hearty wishes started pouring in the previous night and in a similar way the question 'hey how was the cat?'. "CAT??!!" hey! it's not the teeny weeny Lil pet I'm speaking about!!! well, I'm speaking or rather writing here about" common Admission Test-08 an experience".

It's been a great journey, a year's plan and preparation to win the battle. The few words which inspired me to take this exam -"It may be difficult, but it is possible". Enjoyed every moment right from the beginning- the coaching class, the happiness when answers were correct, the bunch of nerves when things didn't work the right way, the worries, the tension built up as the countdown began for D day- everything has been unique in it's own way. The next stage -the national level tests hmmm!! my god!!! I still remember how i made a huge mess in my first test due to the tension, then slowly transformed into a test taker with a series of 16 unpredictable tests ,each one with a different pattern. Trust me, the 16th one was the most peaceful one and with just one week's time on hand -had Lotta last minute things to cram, but that never works with this exam :D. So, the last week before the exam was spent reading novels, solving different papers and most importantly speaking to friends and visualizing myself in the exam :)

THE day- reached on time with my dad's words ringing in my ears" Think only the best, work only for the best and expect only the best. Forget the mistakes of the past and press on to the greater achievements of the future. Give everyone a smile". The paper was a surprise with 90 questions and asymmetric division of sections first time in 10 years, all that apart it was overall a good one :)

And now, kinda happy with it.

So here I am wishing all my friends for upcoming exams , stay cool and give your best. Thanks for reading thro' this!!! lemme end it with a high note-

Life's struggle don't always go To the stronger and faster man,

But sooner or later the man who wins Is the man who thinks he can.

Good luck

Regards

:)

Dollar v/s Rupee and commodities

The currency of any economy is based on dynamics of supply and demand, and its value depends on trading in currency exchanges all over the world.
Higher the demand for a currency on an exchange, the stronger it becomes and vice versa. .

NEWS: "The rupee fell sharply against the dollar at an all-time low of 50"
"Rupee ends weaker than 50 per dollar for first time"

So is the rupee falling with the dollar?
Forget about the rupee. Everything that is happening is to do with dollar.

Here is the comparison of INR and Euros against Dollars the past 6 months.

Don’t worry about the numbers in the ETF just look at the percentage drop. Both euro and INR moved steadily against the dollar.

Why?
People often forget that rupee’s appreciation in the first place has not much to do with the rupee in itself because dollar was moving down against every currency. Now, there is a flight to quality where people don’t want to have money in any unsafe currency and dollar is moving up against every currency.
So, draw rupee against Euros or pounds, you won’t notice either the climb or the drop the past couple of years.

So, how long dollar will be this way?
Nobody knows, but IMO at least for till this credit crisis comes to a reasonable end, dollar will be strong.

Dollar and commodities:
Historically, there has been a negative correlation between the dollar and commodity prices. The classic dollar-hedge is gold and crude.

The price of crude oil has two components
1) supply versus demand
2) value of the dollar.

Crude oil is mainly traded in US dollars.
When the US dollar weakens, the crude oil market participants like speculators, producers, refineries, and such others push the price of crude higher.
This would ensure that oil producers are not at a loss when they convert US dollars into their currency.

The price of gold is linked to the price of oil and to the movements of the dollar.
The gold price has been supported by the growing prosperity of the major Asian countries, particularly India and China. The Indians have a tradition of using gold jewellery as a store of family wealth, and the jewellery trade has been absorbing large quantities of current output.
Generally a stronger dollar reduces gold's appeal as an alternative investment, and makes the precious metal, and other dollar-priced commodities such as crude weaker.

Bottom line principal of "Demand / Supply " still applies to most of the recent phenomenon in Global market.

Sensex below 9000! What next... ?

Sensex fell below the psychological 9,000 mark. World stocks fell on prospects of a deep global recession. Japan, Germany, Hongkong, France all have declared recession! US and UK are also in undeclared recession. What can we expect in the current situation.. ??

Chidambaram, our Finance Minister, has hinted that the country could miss its annual export target of $200 billion for this fiscal year because of the slowdown in developed nations. Our economy after growing at an annual rate of 9+% in the past three years has slumpedto 7.9% in the April-June 2008 quarter. The Reserve Bank of India has downgraded its growth forecast to 7.5% - 8% for the current financial year. A sharp set back like this could bring another round of selling which could bring our sensex down as the sensex has to adjust for the future earnings.
With banks tightening the credits to Real estate companies, there could be some more downsides in the real estate companies. We think there may be a strong selling happening in DLF, Punj Lloyd, Unitech etc.

With China's slowdown we could also face some problems with commodity-related companies. Metal stocks can face a strong sell of Hindalco,Ispat industries, Tisco, Sail could face further problems.

WIth the strengthening of the US dollar against INR, we could face problems in Financial sectors. Stocks like Rel. Capital, KotakMahindra in particular may have selling pressure.
Generally Sensex Heavyweights stocks like RIL, SBI could also be in trouble as FIIs are queueing up to take away 10 billion US$ from India bourses.

We feel index is currentlty on a downtrend and it is too early to buy the shares and the year 2009 will be the best year for bottom fishing.

We do hope that we would get wonderful opportunity to buy some great stocks at great price..!!